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Shape of the market:
“We forecast long-term demand for 36,770 new airplanes, valued at $5.2 trillion. We project that 15,500 of these airplanes (42 percent of all new deliveries) will replace older, less efficient airplanes. The remaining 21,270 airplanes will be for fleet growth, which stimulates expansion in emerging markets and development of innovative airline business models. Single-aisle airplanes continue to command the largest share of the market. Approximately 25,680 new single-aisle airplanes will be needed over the next 20 years. Fast-growing low-cost carriers and network carriers pressed to replace aging airplanes drive single-aisle demand. The widebody fleet will need 8,600 new airplanes. The new generation of efficient widebody airplanes is helping airlines open new markets that would not have been economically viable in the past.”
- The predicted outlook by the University of New South Wales suggests that, “in the longer term, the labour market for aircraft maintenance engineers may tighten. By 2025, they estimate “30 percent global workforce shortfall in aircraft maintenance capacity, with Australia and the Asia Pacific region particularly hard hit”. (University of New South Wales, The Future of Aircraft Maintenance in Australia, October 2015)
- 2017 Aerospace Industry Survey conducted by the Aerospace Industry Reference Committee – Professional representative bodies indicate that the average age of the LAME workforce is increasing, with the average age of LAMEs reported to be over 50. It is expected that the retirement rate will soon start to increase rapidly. The industry needs to consider the physical requirements of the roles and how to replace the skills and experience about to leave the industry.